There was indeed an interesting straw poll among UNSC members on Thursday.
But it had been decided to have another one on Monday – and that will be the one with colour-coded votes so that there is a difference between permanent and non-permanent member states.
That’s when the real drama will begin.
Thursday’s straw poll was interesting in that Latvia’s Vaira Vike-Freiberga – who entered the race only two weeks ago – come in at third place. She had seven votes encouraging her against six votes discouraging her.
Only two candidates – present front-runner Ban Ki Moon from South Korea and Sashi Tharoor from India – did better. All others had more discoraging than encouraging votes – de facto the end of them.
The performance of Vaira Vike-Freibergis is indeed impressive, and she should be truly congratulated. Her success benefits the image of her country and all three of the Baltic countries.
But it’s on Monday it gets real.
Will Russia put a red vote to her since she’s Latvian? Probable, I would say. She has done a lot to improve relations between Russia and Latvia, but it’s doubtful whether that’s enough.
And which red votes will there be against the others? China will take out of the race the candidates it does not want to see going to the final round.
It will be interesting to follow, and this website will give you the latest.
At the end of the day I stand by my guess that it’s likely to end up with someone who’s not on today list.