Europe and the World

 

It turned out to be a rather good discussion in Brussels yesterday as Commission President Barroso brought together three supposedly experienced outsiders with the group of Commissioners most responsible for dealing with the outside world.

As usual, there was an element of the Balkans in it all.

Arriving at the Berlaymont building, I find some TV crews outside interviewing someone. That turned out to be Christian Schwarz-Schilling – the new High Representative in Sarajevo – and since I hadn’t seen him since his appointment I had to stop and congratulate.

The result was a TV interview with both the first and the last High Representative in Bosnia.

And before leaving the building we had some further Balkan discussion. Barroso is heading to the region during the next few days, and will then as well obviously take a personal look at the possibilities of moving the countries closer to the European Union in the next few years.

But the topic of the afternoon was how the external policies of the Union could be made more effective, more coordinated and more visible. And there was certainly no disagreement on the fact that there is room for very substantial improvement in all of these respects.

Increasingly, the European Union is a key actor in shaping the future of globalisation. It might even be argued that it has the potential of being the most significant global actor in this respect due both to the fact that it is the by far largest trading entity in the global economy and that it is the by far most significant example of building a network of integration and cooperation across old borders.

That will then be both an issue for the more classical external policies of the Union, but increasingly also for those policies hitherto seen as primarily internal. I stressed that the Union should increasingly design its policies also with the view that the should be able to inspire and influence corresponding policy developments both in adjacent and further away areas.

Our focus was on the more near-by areas, and there was agreement that there has to be priorities. It was Chris Patten who stressed the importance of India and Brazil – easily forgotten with all the attention that is nowadays given to China. We dealt with the future of the policies in the Mediterranean region as well as towards the East, although there wasn’t enough time to dig as deep as is necessary in the issues of Russia.

Out of all of this will eventually come a paper for the June meeting of the European Council.

On the other side of the Rue de la Loi, Javier Solana’s office was empty. He had left for an extended tour of the Middle East, trying to take us more into a dialogue mood with the Islam world after the emotional outbursts over the famous cartoons in Jyllands-Posten. 

Brussels and Stockholm and Brussels

 

Hopefully a somewhat less hectic week than the last one was ahead of me.

But I’m starting the week with an entire day of discussions in Brussels on what can be done to improve the external and foreign policies of the European Union.

One of the results of the discussions at the European Council meeting in Hampton Court last autumn was obviously that one wanted to look at different ways to make the foreign policy of the Union more effective.

This is also an area where it is obvious that the citizens are expecting more from all of the European Institutions.

As a result of this, there is work both within the European Commission and by High Representative Solana, both aiming at producing papers with suggestions to the June meeting of the European Council.

A part of this work is the Commission President Barroso has invited former Commissioner Chris Patten, former Foreign Minister of Greece George Papandreou and myself to an afternoon of discussions with him and those commissioners dealing with different aspects of foreign affairs. And that’s what will happen tomorrow.

We’ll see what comes out of it. There are certainly things that should – and could! – be done.

A lot of eyes will be on the European Union this week as the European Parliament is to take its decision on the service directiva. For reasons that are less than clear to me, the centre-right EPP-EDG group has decided to strike a deal with the Socialist group on the issue, thus significantly diluting what everyone has seen as one of the key measures needeed to get the European economy truly going in the years ahead.

There are now sharply differing opinions on the wisdom of this. For all that I know, the move was not preceded by debates of the sort that a critical decision of this sort really requires.

On Friday I will be back in Brussels for a meeting with the Governing Board of the European Policy Center, and I would certainly expect this to be one of the more debated issues at that meeting.

But there will most probably be plenty of foreign affairs issue on the agenda as well. This is the week when the new Palestine parliament convenes after the election that gave Hamas a majority among its members.

 

Esthers Children

 

The Middle East is a complex web of complex relationships woven be a very long common history.

And this most certainly applies to the relationship between Israel and Persia. Or – since it predates the state of Israel with thousands of years – the relationship between Jews and Persia.

The Jewish community in Iran today seems to number around 25 000 people, and it has the distinction of being the Jewish community with the longest history of any in the world.

It traces its origins back to the day in 359 BC when the Persian Emperor Cyrus the Great liberated the Jews from the Babylonian captivity. Some – but certainly not the majority – went back to the land that had been theirs, but most remained elsewhere, and evidently a sizeable portion ended up in Persia itself.

They are called Esthers children after the biblical figure of that name. She evidently enchancted one of the Emperors of Persia in the one way or the other.

There is thus a history of more close to 3000 years of Judeo-Persian living together, that has also produced a very rich cultural heritage of different sorts.

Things have evidently been less easy since the 1979 Islamic revolution, although there have been noticeable examples of cooperation. It should be remembered that it was the Hawk anti-aircraft missiles of the Israeli inventory that ended up with the Iranian armed forces during the Iran-Iraq war, and there was evidently a fair amount if intelligence cooperation between Teheran and Tel Aviv at the time as well.

The webs go deep. The present President of Iran and Defence Minister of Israel were born in the same city in Iran. The present Chief of Staff of the Israeli Defence Forces is also coming from Iran. And historically, there has been a deep bond created not only be the long historical legacy of living together but also a common mistrust of their Arab neighbour, more apparant in the days of Saddam Hussein than now.

Historically, I think we will see this relationship coming back, as we will a closer relationship between Iran and the West. It will take its time – and we can only fear what m
In the meantime, it does not hurt to be aware of some of the deeper currents of history.

 

Bombing Iran?

 

The story going round the world media this morning is the report in the Sunday Telegraph of London that the US are planning air and missile strikes against different Iranian nuclear installations.

In itself this is neither new nor sensational. It’s hardly a secret inside the Washington beltway that this is something that one has looked very seriously at. Neither is it a secret that it is a military option with so many problems that most people have backed away from it.

But it might still be that things are starting to change somewhat. There is the risk that one at some time will be in a situation where there is seen to be no other alternative. Firm talk would have taken all other options away.

And perhaps this has given somewhat new impetus to the military plans.

The Sunday Telegraph speculates about an attack using long-range B2 bombers from their base close to Kansas City in central US as well as conventionally-armed D5 ballistic missiles launched from Trident submarines.

Perhaps.

The B2 option is there today. Aircrafts are also based at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, which is considerably closer, reducing flight times. But the conventional D5 option might not be available until after the Bush presidency. It’s a new weapon system with a number of grave implications that haven’t really been discussed.

But the key problem aren’t really military. A raid could be done – although it will require full use of the most advanced resources available – as well as some still on the drawing board.

The key problem is what happens afterwards. The United States will be at war with Iran, and Iran is likely to do whatever it can to strike back. This is more likely to happen in Baghdad and Kabul than in New York or Washington, as well as the Straits of Hormuz.

And the Iranian leadership is most unlikely to give up their nuclear ambitions if attacked. On the contrary. An option for them would then be to just buy a weapon and two from North Korea and use them in retaliation against US-related interest in the part of the region that they can reach.

It’s a horrible scenario whichever way you look at it.

It’s not the attack – it’s what happens afterwards. 

Tension Rising in Caucasus

 

At the same time as the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan Aliyev and Kocharyan are meeting at Rambouillet Castle outside Paris to see if they can reach at the least a partial accomodation on the hotly contested issue of Nagorno-Karabach, tension seems to be on the rise in other parts of the Caucasus.

In Northern Caucasus – within Russia – tensions is definitely increasing. In recent days there have been a battle between Russian forces and different rebel forces at the village of Tukvi-Mektab in the Stavropol region that seems to have left more than 20 dead.

It’s not only Chechnya – it’s large part of Northern Caucasus and adjacent areas of Russia that are becoming tense and dangereous.

In South Ossetia – one of the two break-away areas of Georgia – the last few days have also seen increased tension.

It’s difficult from a distance to really make out the sequence of events, but the increase in tension is obvious. Mutual accusations are flying through the air, and harsh words are coming out of both Tbilisi and Moscow.

A factor affecting the situation is that at this time of the year South Ossetia is isolated from North Ossetia and Russia by snow in the high Caucasus mountain passes. Access is only through Georgia.

A deal over Nagorno-Karabach would be of great importance, also from a wider perspective. It could conceivable open up also for a normalisation of relations between Turkey and Armenia, perhaps even opening up the now closed border between the two nations.

But elsewhere in this volatile region of rich history and cultural mosaic tensions seems to be on the increase.

Watch out! 

Oil for Food Scandal 2

There has been an enormous amount of attention given to the so called Oil for Food scandal in the United Nations. It’s been a true Mecca for the UN-bashers not the least in the American debate.

The substance of that scandal has yet to be fully clarified. An enormous investigation ended with the possibility of one UN official enriching himself. But it seems as if prosecutors have not yet been able to carry the case forward.

A part of the money administred by the UN under this program was handed over to the coalition authorities after the Iraq war.

Now, a TV documentary in the US seems to be documenting massive fraud and huge volumes of money just disappeared in the Iraq reconstruction efforts. Although I doubt the amounts could be that large, there is talk of billions of dollars just disappearing.

It seems as if the Oil for Food money handled by the United Nations was better administred and accounted for than the Oil for Food money handled by the United States.

I don’t think the UN-bashers will pay notice – but others certainly should.

CBS 13/UPN 31: Sacramento’s Source For Breaking News, Weather and Traffic: Billions For Iraq Reconstruction Unaccounted For

Onwards with Turkey and Croatia

Further enlargement might not be the most popular of topics around the European Union at the moment, but it’s worth noting that the Commission continues to press ahead according to plans.

Following the opening of accession negotiations with Turkey and Croatia on October 3 last year, there has been conducted a so called screening of legislation and rules in the two countries. This was expected to take some time.

Now the Commission wants to start concrete negotiations on one of the 35 chapters of the treaties that will have to be negotiated. Obviously, one starts with something that is relatively easy and uncontroversial, in this case the science and research chapter.

The Commission proposal will now have to be supported by all the 25 member states. Among these are Cyprus with its nationalistic and narrow-minded government, so nothing can be taken for granted.

The Nicosia government is in a particularly bad mood after UK Foreign Secretary Jack Straw in an explosion of frankness has said that they should never really have been allowed to join the European Union. He’s of course right – the membership option was one for a united Cyprus – but we are where we are.

So we’ll have to wait and see what happens. The popular mood particularly on the Turkey issue has probably been affected by the cartoon controversy and the TV images that have been coming out of the Muslim world.

But the imperative need for enlargement towards the Southeast is still very much there – not the least with the secular Muslim democracy that is Turkey.

EU to open talks during Austrian presidency – Turkish Daily News Feb 08, 2006

The Danger of Hitler in Teheran

The Munich security conference ended more than a week ago.

Its highlight this year was obviously the speech by Angela Merkel, who drew universal praise not the least from the present Americans for her very robust attitude to the regime in Teheran.

And she certainly went rather far. Drawing on the modern history of Germany she reminded the audience that there were many who had not taken Hitler too seriously in the beginning, and then failed to take the action that perhaps could have been taken.

”I remind you in this context of Germany’s history. In the early 1930′s, when National Socialism was on the rise, there were many – also outside Germany – who said ‘It’s only thetoric’… In retrospect it become clear that there were times when people could have reacted differently. Precisely because of that, Germany is in my view obliged to resist the beginnings.”

This could very easily be interpreted as a call for preventive action against the regime in Teheran. In fact, any other interpretation would be difficult to sustain. The contrast to the policies of the Schröder government could not have been starked.

And what she said has certainly been taken up. An editorial in Wall Street Journal Europe makes the point very explicit:

”If Mrs Merkel really deplores the appeasement policy of the 1930s, she wont be able to pretend that there is a diplomatic solution to the Iranian problem for much longer.”

And that, of course, means that there has to be some sort of military solution.

But in Berlin it’s obvious that not everyone was overly happy with these strong Merkel words and where they might lead.

There are discreet warnings that comparisons like these will lead to military action, and that there will no longer by any room whatsoever for diplomacy. If it really is a new Hitler rising, and there is universal agreement that pre-emptive military action should have been taken early against the Hitler regime, there truly is not much of an alternative to taking pre-emptive military action.

But comparisons like these are often dangereous, and risks limiting options and possibilities far more than widening them.

For all the moral strength of her statement, I would not be surprised if we will hear somewhat less of this particular historical comparison in coming months.

42nd Munich Conference on Security Policy

Sarajevo & Europe

 

In all the controversy around the cartoon crisis it is worth noting that the protest from Muslims in Europe has been almost universally peaceful and orderly. Protest, certainly, but within the bounds of European democratic socities.

This applies to Sarajevo and Bosnia as well.

On Wednesday a demonstration was organized in Sarajevo to express protest against the by now rather famous cartoons. But it turned out to be a rather modest affair. A couple of hundred protesters went from the central mosque to the Norwegian, French and Danish embassies, burning a couple of flags, handed over protest letters and dispersed peacefully.

Among the flags burned was the Croat one. The background was that the rather nationalistic Zagreb magzine Nacional had published the cartoons, bringing hard criticism from the Croat government and parliament. The magazine itself was evidently not available on the newsstands in Bosnia in order not to inflame tensions unduly.

One reason for the moderate nature of the protest was probably the appeal of the head of the Islamic community in Bosnia Reis al-ulema Mustafa Ceric. He’s a Chicago-educated and rather decent man representing European Islam in a country that is both European and Muslim.

And it is a good sign that the extremists in other parts of the Muslim world haven’t been able to get much of a following among the Muslims of Europe on this highly emotional issuel. 

Recognize Israel!

It is of course a most reasonable demand that all states in the Middle East should recognize each other, including Israel.

As a matter of fact, this is a foundation for any sort of peace. All UN resolutions concerning the conflict has this is one of their starting points.

So is that the nations in question don’t occupy each other. It wasn’t accepted when Saddam Hussein occupied Kuwait, and it should not be accepted that Israel occupies the West Bank.

But change in these directions could well take some time. The lifting of the Israeli occupation of the West Bank must go hand in hand with the building of a true Palestine state.

Now the United States is saying that no aid will be given to the Palestine Authority if Hamas does not recognize Israel.

It will be interesting to see if the same demand will be put on the new government that will be formed in Iraq. Here, a pact between key parties explicitly rules out the recognition of Israel.

Will that mean that all US assistance will be immediately withdrawn? That would almost certainly mean handing Iraq over the civil war and to the establishment of at the least significant Al Qaeda enclaves in the country.

A complete cessation of international – or Western – aid to the Palestinian authorities could well lead to a social and economic collapse the area with serious political and security consequences.

Or it could lead to Iran & Co stepping in, paying the bills and taking over.

The Middle East is not always a good place for easy options.

Haaretz – Israel News

Another Denmark

The conflict generated by the agitations over the cartoons in Jyllands-Posten seems to be going on and on and on, and I fear that the effects will be felt for years to come. And they might well be major.

I’ll certainly return to aspects of the issue here as soon as I get the time. A hectic day in Berlin is behind me, but now it’s what’s been gathering dust inh Stockholm in my absence…

In the meatime it might be worth noting this initiative in Denmark, using the Internet to try to foster the dialogue that seems to be so dramatically missing.

A worthy initiative.

Another Denmark

Hectic, Hectic, Hectic…

It’s been hectic days in Belgrade yesterday and Brussels today, further complicated by snow creating problems for traffic both at the Vienna and Munch airports – both hubs for Southeastern Europe.

In Belgrade, the political leadership is trying to understand what the international community is really wanting to do with Kosovo and whether there is any room for real negotiations.

Today, things were further complicated by a statement by John Sawers from the Foreign Office in London. To say that his statement was greeted with jubilation among those here in Brussels dealing seriously with the issue would be the most blatant of lies.

Why would either Belgrade or Prishtina negotiate about anything if everything is announced in advance?

There are lots that really needs to be settled. Whether the status of Kosovo will be some form av restricted independence or something that is more than autonomy Serbia and Kosovo must be able to live as neighbours in a region where cooperation and integration is key to the future.

Tomorrow its onwards to Berlin. Hopefully without snow at any airports…

B92 >> News

The Week Ahead

I will not be in Bucharest, Budapest and Bratislava during the week – but instead I will be in Belgrade, Brussels and Berlin. Anyhow it’s Europe.

I haven’t been to Belgrade for some time but it will be interesting to feel the political temperature there now.

Serbia is key to the stability of the wider Balkan region. What happens there will automatically project either stability or instability in the wider region. Due to its size, it’s also key to the economic development of the area.

But the problems the democrats and reformers of Serbia are facing at the moment are enormous. Some sort of solution has to be found to the Kosovo issue. In Montenegro there will be a referendum on whether to declare independence or not. And there is – rightly so – increased international pressure to bring Radko Mladic to ICTY in The Hague.

Add these up, and it’s hardly surprising that the radical nationalists are gaining ground in the opinion polls. A victory for them in the elections likely next year would be nothing short of catastrophic for Serbia and the wider region.

All of this could be counterbalanced by a strong pull from a European Union opening its doors to new members. But that’s hardly the case at the moment. Hesitancy seems to be the most positive tendency – outright opposition is there from several capitals. Europe is simply not living up to its responsibilities.

For me it will be a day of political talks in Belgrade before proceeding to Brussels for more of the same. There I will address many of those in the 25 member countries of the European Union dealing with policies towards the Balkans. It’s part of the preparations for the upcoming summit in March between the European Union and the Western Balkans.

And I’ll see Javier Solana on other issues as well.

From there it’s onwards to Brussels. The primary occasion for that is a dinner that the President of Germany Horst Köhler gives for former Chancellor Helmut Kohl on Wednesday evening in Schloss Bellevue. It is more than likely to be well attended.

But there will be the occasion also for different other discussions in Berlin. In many ways it has turned into the most important capital of the European Union. The magnetism of Merkel is starting to have its effects.

Jerusalem to Jalalabad

It’s not only the Danish flags burning – as a matter of fact it looks like there is a grave risk that a number of things in the vast region between Jerusalem and Jalalabad might be about to catch fire.

The situation in Palestine and Gaza is obviously flammable. One should note that no measures have been taken to in any way end the isolation of Gaza. It remains a virtual prison, with emotions running increasingly high.

And what happens in Syria is less than clear. The regime is already under pressure after the UN report on its possible role in the Hariri assassination in Lebanon. It’s seen as weak – and it very obviously failed to take action to prevent the burning down of a European Union embassy in Damascus today.

Then there is Iraq. The risks of fragmentation are obvious. It’s highly uncertain whether there will be any further constitutional moves to try to integrate the Sunnis and moderate the insurgency.

And the Iran situation is now in all probability turning worse. Teheran has announced that they are ceasing all cooperation with the IAEA – including unscheduled inspections – and that they are forging ahead with their enrichment programs. The risk of war has increased again.

And while Afghanistan might look stable in relative terms, that’s hardly the case in absolute terms. NATO is facing significant problems taking over a certain stability role in the country, and hardly seems to have the staying power required.

Every little crisis in isolation is serious. Together they might produce a burning belt of confrontation from Jerusalem to Jalalabad.

The world suddenly looks somewhat less safe.

 
 

Jyllands-Posten Apology?

With Danish flags burning all through the Muslim world, and the country facing what might well be described as its foreign affairs gravest crisis since 1940 and 1943 – when German troops first entered and then occupied the country – the paper Jyllands-Posten has published an open letter to the Muslim world.

It’s certainly carefully drafted concerning the by now so famous cartoons:

”They were not intended to be offensive, nor were they at variance with Danish law, but they have indisputably offended many Muslims for which we apologize.”

Exactly what Jyllands-Posten is apologizing for is less than crystal clear, and I would guess that this is highly intentional.

But Kofi Annan has asked the Muslim world to accept this apology.

In the meantime their regimes could at the least protect embassies in their capitals.

Meninger Jyllands-Posten

Is The Clash between Civilisations Here?

The Danish Embassy in Damascus has been burnt down, and the Swedish and Norwegians once obviously damaged as well by the fire.

Is this the clash between civilisation going violent? With Denmark somewhat surprisingly at the center of the conflict?

What we see is a combination of old beliefs and modern means of communication.

What seems to have initiated the fervour on the streets of Damascus was a rumour that SMS messages in Copenhagen had encouraged people to go to a certain place and start burning the Koran.

If such messages were actually sent or not I don’t know. In the agitated atmosphere of these days, it certainly can not be excluded that some lunatics actually did.

But the interesting thing is of course how this information that quickly ended up in Syria, and how it was spread so widely as to cause a crowd to start attacking the Danish embassy.

And there must be serious question put concerning the behaviour of the Syrian authorities. Did they know this? Did they encourage this? Why did they not take measures to protect the building?

Irrespective of the details of this grave incident, it is obvious that substantial steps must now be taken to prevent the fire from spreading even further.

We do not want a violent clash between the civilisations played out in the streets of Damascus and Copenhagen.

dr.dk › Nyheder › Index

The Challenge of the State of Judea

With all the attention now on the consequences of the Hamas victory in the PLC election, it’s easy to overlook what is happening inside Israeli society as seen in the violent confrontation between fundamentalist settlers and Israeli security forces a few days ago.

These are the militants that now hate the state of Israel with nearly the same fervour as they hate the Palestinians. They are even talking of being part of a new ”state of Judea”.

In my view, they are even more unrepresentative of Israeli society than the worst militants are of Palestinian society. But both of them are nevertheless part of the new reality of the conflict.

The linked commentary is well worth reading.

Israel Policy Forum

Could Anthing Good Come Out of This?

It was in September of last year that Jyllands-Posten in Denmark published the by now famous cartoons of the prophet Mohammed.

Since then the affair has been handled somewhat less than brilliantly in Denmark. The long-standing Foreign Minister Uffe Ellemamn-Jensen belonged to those that some months ago urged a somewhat different approach in order to prevent the conflict from escalating.

But now we are where we are.

Last week they were evidently burning Danish flags in Nablus on the West Bank. I wonder how they got hold of these flags and how they even knew that they were Danish flags – neither presence nor knowledge of Danish flags is particularly evident there.

It was obviously something organized and orchestrated. And that seems to have been the pattern throughout the Middle East as the conflict has escalated.

Much harm can be done by this conflict – but there is also the potential for some good to be a result.

The countries of the Arab Muslim world might learnt something more about the freedom of the press in all its different dimensions. The amount of rubbish produced on an daily basis by the media is astonishing – but their freedom to do also this is part of our free societies.

And our countries might learn something more about the religious sensibilities of the Muslim world and the wisdom of respecting the beliefs and feelings of people holding other beliefs than ours. Respect for others should also be a fundamental value of our societies.

Linked you can find the lengthy interview Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen of Denmark gave yesterday to the pan-Arab TV channel Al Arabiya.

You can read it in Danish translation or you can watch it in English and Arabic.

dr.dk › Nyheder › Udland › Anders Fogh Rasmussens interview til Al Arabiya

In Ramallah

Just found an easy way to get photos to the blog and testing to see to which extent it really works.

This is just a shot from the meetings we had in Ramallah in Palestine when I was there for the Palestine election. President Carter talking with Abu Mazen – President of the Palestine Authority – the day before the election.

It was a good talk, although I vividly remember that Abu Mazen said that he was confident that his Fatah party was going to come out on the top on election day. As we now know, that proved out to be a less than correct assessment of the situation.

 
 

Addicted to Oil

It was hardly surprising that President Bush devoted half of his State of the Union speech to foreign policy issues, and the bulk of that was about the situation in Iraq and its importance.

On other foreign policy issues – notably Iran – it was just a restatement of policy. The same on Israel and Palestine.

The most innovative part of the speech was the one devoted to energy policy:

”America is addicted to oil, which is often imported from unstable parts of the world. The best way to break this addiction is through technology. Since 2001, we have spent nearly $10 billion to develop cleaner, cheaper, and more reliable alternative energy sources — and we are on the threshold of incredible advances.

So tonight, I announce the Advanced Energy Initiative — a 22-percent increase in clean-energy research — at the Department of Energy, to push for breakthroughs in two vital areas. To change how we power our homes and offices, we will invest more in zero-emission coal-fired plants, revolutionary solar and wind technologies, and clean, safe nuclear energy. (Applause.)

We must also change how we power our automobiles. We will increase our research in better batteries for hybrid and electric cars, and in pollution-free cars that run on hydrogen. We’ll also fund additional research in cutting-edge methods of producing ethanol, not just from corn, but from wood chips and stalks, or switch grass. Our goal is to make this new kind of ethanol practical and competitive within six years. (Applause.)

Breakthroughs on this and other new technologies will help us reach another great goal: to replace more than 75 percent of our oil imports from the Middle East by 2025. (Applause.) By applying the talent and technology of America, this country can dramatically improve our environment, move beyond a petroleum-based economy, and make our dependence on Middle Eastern oil a thing of the past.”

Great words – I think the speech will be remembered for the phrase ”addiction to oil”.

His goal of reducing dependence on oil imports from the Midde East with 75 % by 2025 is somewhat less ambitious than it sounds. Only 20 % of US oil imports today are coming from there.

But he has clearly set a new direction for policy.

And that might be important enough.

* * * * State of the Union 2006 * * * *