It might not be the biggest global story at the moment, but the first round of the local elections in Macedonia this Sunday are not without interest.
I was there when the country descended into fighting that brought to the brink of large-scale civil war in 2oo1. It was essentially a spill-over from Kosovo – most of the key rebel fighters had crossed the mountains from there in order to launch the attack on Kosovo – but still reflected some of the divisions in Macedonian society.
After heavy political intervention by the EU and the US, a political deal was brokered in Ohrid, and the country set on a new path with greater rights for its Albanian minority, consisting of somewhat more than a fifth of the total population.
The Ohrid Agreement has been under threat a number of time since then, but it has held. Now, a major reform of local administration has been done, including some highly controversial redrawing of municipal boundaries, and the elections now are to elect new local leaders to these partly new local administrations.
On a brief visit to Skopje, the political athmosphere was unsually calm. In Skopje, the battle will be within the Macedonian majority there, while in Tetovo, which is the key Albanian city, there will be fought a major electoral battle between two Albanian parties. The war leader from 2oo1, subsequently part of the government that implements the Ohrid Agreement, might well fail to unseat the dominance of the party that dominated the Tetovo region prior to the rebellion.
We’ll see. Either way, there is no reason to expect major drama. And it’s really the absence of major drama that is the big unreported story coming out of Macedonia. War makes headlines – peace really doesn’t, not even in places that have been on the verge of major war.
I was there for a major conference on economic development that brought most of the leaders of the region together. With growth rates of 4-5% and with foreign investment starting to increase there is a reasonable story to tell about the region.
But much more needs to be done, and that was the subject of the meeting. And at the centre of the discussions were the prospect for closer relations to, eventually leading to membership of, the European Union. That is seen as the safest way to both peace and prosperity for the region.
The silent success of the Ohrid Agreement has showed the peace possibilities – and the economic integration will over time show the prosperity potential.
With the ongoing and deliberate destruction of ethnical balance in the rest of Europe we may soon face Balkan like situations all over the continent.
I think Mr. Bildts experience will contribute to solving these coming problems. Until then, we just have to sit and wait, doing nothing to prevent it from happen.
Interesting observations. What is the basis for Macedonia’s economy?
A Western visitor to Macedonia, especially to the Ohrid lake, one of the prettiest on the peninsula, sees little of the economic and political hardship plaguing this little country, the poorest of the ex-Yugoslav republics.
And so it is perhaps easy to partake in the growing insistence that the Ohrid agreement and the ensuing peace has been a resounding success.
But we do so at the risk of blinding ourselves to the risks still remaining. Though armed with a coterie of civil leaders, first and foremost president CRVENKOVSKI, who have shown a strong commitment to democracy and pluralism without being overly populist, strong concerns remain.
Key provisions of the Ohrid agreement have not been implemented. The degree of self-governance promised to the Albanian regions of the country remains low. Persistent corruption remains a plague, despite recent waves of arrest (which the heinously inefficient judicial system is unable to handle). And violent crime rates are among the highest in Europe – quite a feat for a country of 2 million people.
Ahmedi’s main rivals still call for the federalization of Macedonia or, worse yet, the creation of a Greater Albania – and they command strong popular support in the Albanian villages. Mutual suspicion between the ethnic groups linger, and, as even visiting tourists can tell, Albanians and Macedonians mingle little.
Perhaps all of this tension will die out; the election is certainly a positive sign. But there is still quite a bit of tension and room for international mediation ahead of us.
I certainly agree that there ís much more work ahead in Macedonia, in spite of my generally upbeat assessment of the situation in the country.
The election outcome in Tetoto will be particularly interesting to watch.
I don’t think, however, that there is too great support among the Albanians of Macedonia for either a Greater Albania or a Greater Kosovo.
They are likely to want to govern themselves, but preferrable with the United States.
I believe Greater Albabnia has much more support in Albsnia and Kosovo thsn it has in Msacedonia.
There seems to have been more problems in the first round of the local elections than anticipated.
This is what the OSCE observer have said:
”Whilst the generally orderly conduct of the elections in most places is very welcome, the serious and persistent irregularities in a significant number of municipalities undermine the process as a whole,” Julian Peel Yates, heading the observer mission, said in a statement issued by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
”The behavior of the persistent offenders must change before the (March 27) second round.”